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We have not made any significant changes to our global growth and inflation scenario this past month. We therefore continue to expect both the Fed and the ECB to start cutting rates at their June meetings. The risk to this baseline scenario remains a more delayed start (and fewer cuts over the forecast horizon), especially for the Fed, because a significant easing of core inflation in the US after the upside surprises earlier in the year is necessary for the Fed to be confident enough to start cutting rates. Upside risks to inflation appear more limited in the Eurozone, where the growth profile is also still significantly weaker than in the US.